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Economic Outlook

 

 

This monthly publication aims at providing our clients with state-of-the-art economic knowledge about country- and sector-risks, business insolvency trends, and macroeconomic developments. Special reports focus on underlying trends which affects the business environment.

 

20160827-EO-Public-Bumpers-for-the-Automotive-Market-cover.png Public bumpers for the automotive market​​
September 2016
Special report 

 

In 2016, the global automotive market remains divided. On one hand, Europe, China, and the United States will post strong growth. On the other, India is stagnant, Japan is floundering and Russia and Brazil continue their dizzying drop. Public policies will determine growth in many car markets.
20160803-EO-The_Price_of_Growth_cover.jpg The price of growth - Summer 2016
Global growth will slow down to +2.4% in 2016, its lowest level since the great recession
 

Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%).  The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade. This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017: the first rise since the great recession.
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This unique Atlas  offers 8 maps depicting economic trends across regions and countries, sectors and industries: global growth, trade, cash, DSO, insolvencies, collection complexity, sector risk, and country risk.
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Companies are having an early start at their own Olympics
 

"On a quarterly basis, Euler Hermes measures sector risk for 18 sectors in 72 countries. In 2015, out of 1300 industries (country x sector), we recorded 148 industry downgrades for only 76 upgrades. 2015 marked a year of renewed non-payment risk for many sectors which were already fragile."
7dwarfs ​The 7 dwarfs of global growth - January 2016
Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
 

"How will the world economy perform in 2016? In a new report titled “The 7 dwarfs of global growth”, the Economic Research team at Euler Hermes identifies seven key drivers of growth that are too small. This edition of the Economic Outlook explores and analyzes trends in trade, consumerism, investment, insolvencies and other crucial elements of GDP growth."
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"This year will be remembered as a turning point: the world realized emerging markets are called emerging for a reason. After a five-year love story with the fatest-growing part of the world, time has come for a reality check..."

EH Outlook pic July.JPG Automa​​​rket: a​​ live wire - July/August 2015​
Special Report
 

"Things are going amazingly (too) fast in today’s world of disruption. The collaborative consumer is king. The Sharing or On-Demand economy and digital transformation – simply the tip of the iceberg – are just a few of the developments that are knocking traditional industries off course."
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Riding into risks or recovery? - May/June 2015
Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

 
"Doing business is like riding a bicycle: to keep your balance you must keep moving; and it has been quite a mud run lately! Companies have for a long time realized that they have to fight relentlessly to avoid getting bogged down by political turbulence, liquidity freeze and bewildering confidence headwinds."
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Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook
 
"After six years of intense depression, it seems that a weaker euro, lower oil prices and cheap financing costs are doing the trick - the largest economy in the world, Europe, is finally on the mend. It did not come at zero cost for companies and households, but we should rejoice of finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel."
 
 
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Global Trade: What's cooking?
February/March 2015

Introducing twelve countries’ recipes for boosting exports
 
"Like a cyclist against the wind, global trade has been fighting an uphill battle. Yes, the outlook does look better overall and trade-gnation sounds like old news, but competition is fierce. Trade is like a marathon; there are front runners and laggards, hungry competitors, those who burn out and those who fade away. Will eager nations catch up?"
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Overview 2015 - January 2015
Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending
 

"As the nights become increasingly dark, at least in the northern hemisphere, those of us with children may pass the time telling fables and short-stories by the fireplace – heaters work too. Euler Hermes’ seven fairy tales on the 2015 economic outlook is a Tiger Mom’s best companion..."