Media comment – Eurozone composite PMI release

24th January

Commenting on the composite PMI data for the Eurozone, Katharina Utermöhl, senior economist at Euler Hermes, the world’s leading trade credit insurer, said:

“[Despite a weaker reading,] There are some encouraging signs that suggest the Eurozone’s economy might now have passed the worst of the economic headwinds it weathered last year, which included Brexit worries, the US-China trade dispute and an industrial slowdown in Germany. That said, a drastic turnaround in fortunes is unlikely.

“Industrial production will begin to pick up, but only gradually as factory stockpiles remain elevated. This is particularly prominent in the UK, one of the Eurozone’s biggest trading partners, despite the best efforts of businesses to sell off a glut of stock which had been acquired in the run-up to the country’s anticipated withdrawal from the EU in October. Until this is shifted, demand will remain subdued.

“We expect the Eurozone will witness just a moderate pick-up in export growth, however, with activity still subdued and geopolitical risks around trade continuing to loom large. And while cyclical headwinds may be gradually fading, structural challenges – particularly the ongoing slowdown in Chinese GDP growth – will continue to weigh on activity. We anticipate GDP growth in Germany – the Eurozone’s largest, heavily trade-focused economy – to register just 0.6% GDP growth in 2020.

“Just as unlikely as a dramatic turnaround, though, is a recession for the Eurozone thanks to resilient private consumption. Overall we expect GDP growth to register at 1.0% in 2020 and to moderately pick up in 2021 to 1.3%. While the recovery will likely be slow to gather pace, European firms will welcome a more upbeat economic outlook for the year ahead.”

 

Media Contacts: 

Euler Hermes Media Relations
Adrian Russell
+44 (0)20 7860 2728
adrian.russell@eulerhermes.com

Citypress
David Bertram
+44 (0)161 235 0300
David.bertram@citypress.co.uk

 

Mar 20, 2020 | News

Coronavirus ECB measures

Commenting on the measures introduced by the ECB to deal with the coronavirus outbreak, Katharina Utermöhl, senior economist at Euler Hermes.

Jan 24, 2020 | News

Eurozone composite PMI

Commenting on the composite PMI data for the Eurozone, Katharina Utermöhl, senior economist at Euler Hermes, the world’s leading trade credit insurer.

Jan 24, 2020 | News

Pace of UK business failures to slow in 2020

The number of UK business failures will rise 3% year-on-year in 2020 as the political situation stabilises and GDP strengthens.

Jan 07, 2020 | News

UK export growth set to outstrip leading European economies in 2020

Growth in the value of UK exports will outstrip the rest of Europe 2021 with only China, the US and Canada set to record bigger increases globally

May 07, 2019 | News

US-China Trade Uncertainty

Euler Hermes comments on how increasing uncertainty is impacting the global economy more than the tariffs themselves.

May 07, 2019 | News

Us China Trade Uncertainty

Euler Hermes comments on how increasing uncertainty is impacting the global economy more than the tariffs themselves.

May 01, 2019 | News

April 2019 Manufacturing PMI Media Comment

Euler Hermes comments on the April PMI statistics.

Apr 10, 2019 | News

Euler Hermes ONS Media Comment February

Euler Hermes comments on February ONS trade figures.

Mar 21, 2019 | News

Bad debt Britain - payouts to help UK firms survive unpaid bills now at their highest since 2009 (ABI)

£5 million a week paid by trade credit insurers to help firms cope with bad debts as the number of claims soar 60% in the last year.

Mar 13, 2019 | News

Euler Hermes Annual Results 2018

Highest earnings in 10 years boosting new strategic plan!