Media comment – UK balance of trade

Ana Boata, head of macroeconomic research at Euler Hermes, the world’s leading trade credit insurer, said:

“This data is a sign of the strain UK firms are currently facing. While some of the non-tariff barriers to trade, such as the increase in red tape and form-filling, will be ironed out in the short term, the combination of Covid-19 and Brexit will ultimately prove to be a long-term drag on growth. 

“Exporters will be particularly hard hit. After a 16.7% dip in exports in 2020, we anticipate a rebound of just 7.4% by the end of 2022. The recovery in imports will be stronger and we forecast growth of 8.6% and 7.1% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

“These stark figures will have wide-reaching repercussions for firms and there’s a risk of a domino effect on insolvencies later in the year. The good news is that, after a sharp fall in 2020 spending, cash-rich consumers are expected to boost the economy by increasing their outlays by more than 12% to the end of 2022 from Q1 2021. In addition, business investment will grow by close to 20% over the same period.

“The pick-up in activity, induced by a quickly-vaccinated public, will be welcomed by businesses but the overall recovery will still be muted. As such, we anticipate GDP growth to come in at 3.7% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2021.”


Media Contact: 

Adrian Russell
+44 (0)20 7860 2728


Callum Brown
+44 (0)161 235 0361 

The financial failure of others can hurt your business in surprising ways. Trade credit insurance can protect your enterprise against that risk.
Do you have a protocol in place if one of your customers is struggling to pay? Check out this checklist to maximise the chances of getting your money back.

Many companies will have to restart afresh. They will have to behave almost like start-ups, with the financial risks typical of a new comer.
There are several options and tools to mitigate credit risks. You should weigh the costs and benefits of these options and investigate carefully to determine the best fit for your company.

| News

Bad debt Britain - payouts to help UK firms survive unpaid bills now at their highest since 2009 (ABI)

£5 million a week paid by trade credit insurers to help firms cope with bad debts as the number of claims soar 60% in the last year.

| News

Euler Hermes Brexit Vote Media Comment

Euler Hermes comments on the recent parliamentary Brexit deal vote.

| News

Media comment – UK balance of trade

The combination of Covid-19 and Brexit will ultimately prove to be a long-term drag on growth. Exporters will be particularly hard hit. Read more !

| News

February 2019 PMI Manufacturing Media Comment

Euler Hermes comments on the February PMI statistics.

| News

Green2Green Single Risk: a pioneer insurance product

Euler Hermes has launched pioneering product will contribute to tackling climate change by insuring green transactions and investing in certified green bonds.

| News

Data Portal Launch

Euler Hermes launches its open data portal, granting public access to millions of exclusive data

| News

Pace of UK business failures to slow in 2020

The number of UK business failures will rise 3% year-on-year in 2020 as the political situation stabilises and GDP strengthens.

| News

Trade credit insurers pay out a record £1 million a day to help UK firms stay afloat

ABI’s assistant director comments on the importance of Trade Credit Insurance in the current economic climate.

| News

UK set for second biggest rise in insolvencies globally

The UK will experience the second largest rise in business failures of any of the major global economies this year

| News

April 2019 Manufacturing PMI Media Comment

Euler Hermes comments on the April PMI statistics.