Economic Research updates

Have a look at the latest Brexit publications from our Economic Research Team: Brexit scenarios, GDP forecasts, etc.

16 October 2019
Brexit: A technical extension likely, followed by a deal
Prospects for a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK have significantly risen over the past few days, but a technical extension until early 2020 seems still likely.

24 September 2019
UK: One in six companies doesn’t feel ready for a “Hard Brexit”
While we expect a last-minute extension of Article 50 until mid- or Q3 2020, the risk of a “Hard Brexit” remains high (40%).

28 August 2019
UK: Brexit – A last-minute extension of Article 50 (again)
A no-confidence vote in PM Boris Johnson’s government is very likely to be called in the week of 3 September as the opposition wants to avoid a “no deal” scenario on 31 October.

12 June 2019
UK: Contingency stockpiling will accelerate in Q3 again
Stocks have increased continuously since Q1 2018 – and accelerated markedly in Q1 2019, most probably linked to Brexit preparations.

15 May 2019
Softer Brexit does not rule out economic slowdown

Discover our 2019 UK forecasts including country risk, economic growth, business insolvencies, investment and Brexit uncertainty. Read our latest UK Country Report now!

3 April 2019
UK: Towards a softer Brexit

The permanent Custom Union with the EU lost by only 3 votes so there is clearly a momentum building up in the Parliament around this option.

13 March 2019
UK: Brexit me…later

Without surprise, British Prime Minister Theresa May lost the vote on the “slightly revised” Brexit deal. What are the three relevant options an extension period would open?

6 February 2019
Brexit: The final countdown may take longer
In this report, our economists explain why we continue to expect a last-minute agreement and why an extension of Article 50 looks highly probable.

16 January 2019
The decision of Brexit will continue to weigh on the UK economy

The process of Brexit will continue to feed into the uncertainty which has kept UK growth below potential.

16 January 2019
UK: A Shakespearean Brexit until the last minute
On 15 January, the UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal. What are the political scenarios and the economic consequences? What does it mean for businesses in the UK and the EU?


14 January 2019

The decision of Brexit will continue to weigh on the UK economy
The process of Brexit will continue to feed into the uncertainty which has kept UK growth below potential.

10 January 2019
Brexit: 10 key questions about the future of the UK

In this series of 10 videos, our Senior Economist for Europe Ana Boata answers ten of your most asked questions about Brexit and the future of the UK.

28 November 2018
UK: All eyes on 11 December
Will the UK Parliament approve the Brexit Withdrawal deal on 11 December? Find out what could happen if they approve it… or if they don’t.


14 November 2018

UK: Activity is expected to considerably slow down in Q4
Our Senior Economist for Europe Ana Boata shares the latest UK economic growth forecast.


08 November 2018
A new M&A regime post Brexit vote?
How does Brexit impact M&A deals and how will it impact them in the future? Have a look at our snippet.


15 October 2018
Brexit: A blind date better than a bad breakup
We continue to expect a “Blind Brexit” – a last-minute deal with the EU where both sides agree on a Free Trade Agreement. Find out what it would mean and what the other scenarios ar
e.

 

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